Shadow Prices in PMP and Consequences for Calibration and Estimation of Programming Models

Demand and Price Analysis,

TRQ-complications: Who gets the benefits when the EU liberalises Mercosur's access to the beef markets?

Revised version of paper added to AgEcon Search 03/02/2010Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Structural Change of European Dairy Farms- A Cross-Regional Analysis

Previous analyses of dairy farm structural change focused on the variation over time in one or a small number of regions. Here we present an EU15-wide analysis of the change of the number of farms in different size classes. The purpose is (1) to identify the differences in regional development patterns and (2) to measure the explanatory relevance and effect of key factors suggested in the literature. Apart from the unprecedented scope, the underlying Markov chain analysis also contributes by combining observed transitions in micro data with macro data on farm numbers. Results show widely significant impacts of most explanatory variables, but also reveal the complexity of the underlying processes.Structural change, dairy farms, Markov chain, cross-regional, EU, Agricultural and Food Policy,

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EU POLICIES – CHALLENGES FOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

This paper gives an overview on current and prospective modelling challenges for agricultural partial equilibrium (PE) models focussing on EU policies. Starting from a certain policy context, the paper highlights the current capabilities and limitations of existing PE models and, if available, develops some ideas on future modelling directions to advance the usefulness of quantitative information provided.Policy impact assessment, agricultural partial equilibrium models, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Structural change of European dairy farms - A cross-regional analysis

Previous analyses of dairy farm structural change focused on the variation over time in one or a small number of regions. Here we present an EU-15-wide analysis of the change of the number of farms in different size classes. The purpose is (1) to identify the differences in regional development patterns and (2) to measure the explanatory relevance and effect of key factors suggested in the literature. Apart from the unprecedented scope, the underlying Markov chain analysis also contributes by combining observed transitions in micro data with macro data on farm numbers. Results show widely significant impacts of most explanatory variables, but also reveal the complexity of the underlying processes.Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Farm Structural Change in German Regions - An Empirical Analysis using Micro and Macro Data

General economic developments as well as recent fundamental changes in the Common Agricultural Policy will likely impact significantly on the European farm structure. Although a decline of total farm numbers continues to be the general observation, important differences occur across regions and farm types. These differentiated developments and their determinants are of high relevance for policy impact assessment at the regional level. The main objective of the analysis provided in this paper is to empirically identify whether regionally specific characteristics account for differences in regional farm structure development. This is exemplarily shown for German FADN regions. As methodological approach a combined time series, cross-sectional Markov chain analysis is applied. The non-stationary Markov model is estimated via generalised cross-entropy estimation technique with the transition probabilities being represented as multinomial logit functions of explanatory variables and their coefficients. Prior information on the transition probabilities is obtained from observed single farm movements of the FADN sample.Farm structure, Markov model, Germany, Farm Management,

Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data

In this poster a Bayesian estimation framework for a non-stationary Markov model is developed for situations where sample data with observed transition between classes (micro data) and aggregate population shares (macro data) are available. Posterior distributions on transition probabilities are derived based on a micro based prior and a macro based Likelihood function thereby consistently combining previously separated approaches. Monte Carlo simulations for ordered and unordered Markov states show how observed micro transitions improve precision of posterior knowledge as the sample size increases.Bayesian estimation, Markov transitions, prior information, multinomial logit, ordered multinomial logit, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Regional crop supply behaviour in the EU

The objective of this paper is to present an evolution of PMP model suitable to estimate the revenue function and to provide price elasticity due to the variation of subsidies at farm level, especially if they are decoupled. This problem arises when individual data of farm households in a given region, coming from FADN, are used for implement PMP models finalized to policy analysis. This paper presents the theoretical background of the proposed innovations and empirical evidence on the basis of a sample of farms included in FADN database in Italy.Bayesian estimation, errors-in-variables, PMP, Crop Production/Industries,

A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Programming Models

The paper introduces a general methodological approach for the estimation of constrained optimisation models in agricultural supply analysis. It is based on optimality conditions of the desired programming model and shows a conceptual advantage compared to Positive Mathematical Programming in the context of well posed estimation problems. Moreover, it closes the empirical and methodological gap between programming models and duality based functional models with explicit allocation of fixed factors. Monte Carlo simulations are performed with a maximum entropy estimator to evaluate the functionality of the approach as well as the impact of empirically relevant prior information in small sample situations.Agricultural Supply Analysis, Programming Models, Maximum Entropy Estimation, Prior Information, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Analysing major determinants of European FDI into the Mediterranean countries

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is known as a very relevant driver of economic growth and has found increased attention in recent trade research. Existing theories differ, however, in their conclusion regarding the relation between trade in goods and FDI: they appear to be either complements or substitutes depending on the theory applied and specific country conditions. Benefits or losses for individual member countries resulting from these different relationships are relevant for evaluating the effects of regional trade areas as established by the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. This paper offers an empirical analysis of the connection between trade and FDI flows in the agribusiness sector in the context of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. It contributes to the limited literature in this area by providing an overview on relevant theories and their conclusion on the relationship between trade and FDI. Determinants implied by the single theories are identified and reasonable proxies derived for the carried out econometric analysis. The empirical analysis shows mixed evidence on the complementary or substitutive relationship of FDI and trade in agricultural goods. For comparison and better interpretation of determinants’ impacts identified by the econometric analysis, a further analysis between the EU15 and the Mercosur countries is carried out. Finally, further research needs in this area of trade analyses are identified for the specific case of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, EU-Med Partnership, International Relations/Trade,